the probability of an outcome for a set of events that are unique

topic posted Tue, August 4, 2009 - 4:58 AM by  Unsubscribed
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I recently posted this on another site with regard to the LHC and the probability that it will cause a catastrophic event... similarly I wondered what mathematicians had to say ..

the probability of an outcome for a set of events that are unique is I would aver actually incalculable…

For instance if I toss a coin the probability of a head or a tail landing is 50/50.. I, as you also, know this because of past experience… but if I give you a new coin, one weighted on one side but I don’t tell you which side it is weighted on or by what factor, can you still calculate a probability of the ratio of heads to tails that tossing this new coin has?

The answer is simply no you can’t. This is similarly the case with the LHC which is intending to perform an action which has never occurred in the universe that we know, that’s the universe that formed after the initial inflationary period. The argument that these collision occur all the time in space is speculative, there is no direct evidence to support this view… hence when and if the LHC is turned on the outcome of the collisions generated, an event that will be unique in our universe, is unknown…

there are possibilities but these are not the same as probabilities…. And each possibility has an equal chance of occurring until we have some data to develop probabilities. However unlike our weighted coin, which has only 2 possible outcomes (my new coin can't stand on it's edge) the total number of outcomes from the LHC are unknown…. thus all we can say about our coin is that it will be weighted in one direction or the other.. but which can only be determined by experimentation.

with the LHC nobody knows how many faces the coin has... what the full list of possibilities is.. thus experimentation is the only way to answer the question and determine probability

Put or rather add to this scenario another context, chiefly benefit… and ask this simple question “ to what benefit and to whom does this benefit affect?”…. the answer at best (and most likely) is a handful of scientist get a Nobel prize… the rest of us get nothing…. So the risk to 6.5 billion people is an unknown probability of a catastrophic outcome in order that a few get to spend the rest of their lives on the rubber chicken circuit…. As one of the 6.5 billion I don’t like this risk..it may be small but never the less I as with the other 6.5 billion stand to gain nothing... like backing a horse just to get your stake back...

but as mathematician can you provide a proof that the coin is weighted in favour of rubber chickens rather than black holes?

regards

GM23
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  • The probablities are simple to figure out... Physicists wouldn't do the experiment if they thought there was a significant risk. This discussion is similar to the one people had when the H-bomb was first tested (ie: would it ignite the atmosphere?), and the response was the same then as mine...

    Are there risks, yes, but it would take a real surprise to be the thing to destroy the world. By the time we figured out we had a problem it would be over.
    • Unsu...
       
      hi troy,

      long time no row...lol

      but the night is young..

      and we have many years to ARGUE BULLSHIT... opps caps locked themselves,,,

      anyway to drunk to ramble so can you prove my riddle....??

      can you determine probability without experimentation?

      regards

      gm23
      • GM23,

        "can you determine probability without experimentation? "

        For a problem like the one you ask, I'd say no. The models that the LHC is concerned with project beyond what is known and the resulting predictions are highly speculative (this is an issue of statistical inference) and should be taken with a few grains of salt. If the models concerned predictions between known data, the situation would be different.

        Twice now, I've answered your serious question with polite and serious answers...
        • Unsu...
           
          sorry troy,

          no offence intended... quite the reverse...

          we hav had some great rows in the past...

          and I enjoyed them

          and for once we are in 'partial' agreement.... chiefly the probability of a catostrophic event occuring as a consequence of the LHC experiments are unknown... despite the fact that CERN aver otherwise...

          we are seeing many many flaws with the way CERN present speculation as fact... but on the plus side their grasp of probability is matched with their grasp of engineering....

          regards

          gm23
  • aggressive theorists are always properly motivated by the maths, and not references to the hidden properties of conservative physics.

    it is, in chaos and substantial consequence that any hypothetical include appropriately the Standard Model.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model

    there are some interesting conflicts of understanding which appear to be unsolvable, however it is in principle offensive to avoid the Standard.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyo...dard_Model

    most new predictions are actually projections (in hyperbolic space) based on triangulation, and then when also consistent with appropriate steering, allowed to use some part of the beam in an experiment to confirm.

    it is also interesting to note that trigonometry is not alone sufficient, while geometry is. The term non-Euclidian Geometry deprives the metric of the flat surface by defined exclusion.

    a reference to Napoleon's Theorem is appropriate, where for any three points which can be connected in a straight line a triangle will have interior angles which sum to Pi radians.

    an equilateral can be constructed for each side, by adding two arms of the same length and defining the center of each equilateral as a prime center.

    from each prime center a straight line connecting the three _always_ forms an equilateral triangle and the sum of the interior angles is Pi radians, and the equal interior angles are each Pi/3 radians.

    if the surface leaves the Euclidian metric, (becoming a curved surface), then the rules of trigonometry _no longer_ are valid in the space.

    the flexible sheet problem, deformed at the center of the equilateral (by for example a squirt of H20),

    shows that the interior angles must then each be less than Pi/3 and sum to less than Pi radians.

    Hyperbolic Space projections are the appropriate opportunity to hypothetical solutions and perhaps confirmation by experiment.

    of course, beam is not available without steering committee.
    • Unsu...
       
      i,m sorry jon,

      perhapsd it is bcause of the atlantic,,, or perhaps i'm stupid but you post such whimsical and non interpretable words i cant tell what you are attempting to say.... much as i'm sure it pains ..please bring yourself down to my level and speak a plainer less eloquent english... it really does help us idiots to understand what you are trying to share...

      regards

      gm23
  • I think the probability of fear due to any proximity to a black hole for the population may be 50/50.

    LHC is a lab, in essence. Scientists around the world are involved. Lots and lots of folks. And I'm sure they are treating this like a space program, lots and lots of number crunching.

    But to think that a black hole of any size would swallow the Earth I think is unfounded in Astronomy. Every galaxy has a super massive black whole in its center. And apparently that's what makes the galaxy. Its not swallowing up the whole galaxy, but causes stars to orbit around it in a stable fashion. So will a micro black whole.

    This subject has nothing to do with math. People who fear something may not listen to math and apparently to this subject that still is holding true.
    • Unsu...
       
      hi eric,

      >>This subject has nothing to do with math. People who fear something may not listen to math and apparently to this subject that still is holding true.<<

      whilst the precise work of the LHC is not strictly mathematics the use of predictive techniques is and it was in relation to those aspects that the thread was started...

      the question related to the ability to predict an outcome for a set of evnts that are unique... it's very much an 'open' question and the use of the LHC was to give an example, to focus the theoretical on a practical application....

      that said the L:HC is perhaps the most complex and radical experiment ever proposed and just about every component is dependent on good mathematics.... in particular the use of probability....

      If as I would aver the team are not using or presenting statisical predictions correctly... leading to claims as to the probability of outcomes that is seriously flawed then its possible for mathematics to identify and raise these concerns.....

      with that in mind I started the thread and proposed the problem of the weighted coin....

      Troy's reply supported my suspicions.. that the outcome is uncalculable.... and whilst I respect and agree with Troys opinion I would still like to see if anyone can show a mathematical solution to the problem.... then I can sleep with ease knowing that all thos brilliant minds aren't building theories based on a fundemental flaw, a flaw an undergrade should be aware of.

      so eric can you prove my premise wrong? do you have a mathematical proof to the problem?

      regards

      GM23
      • >"so eric can you prove my premise wrong? do you have a mathematical proof to the problem? "<

        Since the problem is extremely general. No. Nobody can. Catastrophic is not defined. And a weighted coin is a trick coin. And somewhere recently they found that a flip of a coin may not be 50/50.

        So why not rephrase the problem to a more concise problem with all the variables?
        • Unsu...
           
          you ask.... >>So why not rephrase the problem to a more concise problem with all the variables? <<

          in short.. occums razor... if the problem is unsolvable with the minimum number of variables then it is equally unsolvable with the maximum... it just takes a lot less time to realize this with the minimum than the maximum... hence I gave the simpliest possible example... the weighted coin.

          regards

          gm23
          • weighted coin...

            the simple and intimate model is a good choice, imho, itymbr.

            understanding "expected value" and "confidence" values is essential.

            expected value
            en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

            confidence
            en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki...dence_MEAN

            more@> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics
            • Two things:

              - Each flip of a "real" coin is unique and if you knew all the characteristics of and the forces operating on the coin, you would be able to predict heads or tails. Our problem there is we don't know all the forces. We do know "enough" of the characteristics and forces to make a decent prediction of the "expected value."

              - How "unique" is the H:LC experiment - there must be some understanding or way of predicting if that kind of collision occurs naturally. If there is some reasonably large possibility that that kind of collision has occurred in the universe since it became "maturely" formed, we at least know there is some reasonably large possibility that the collision will not cause the universe to disappear!
              • Unsu...
                 
                >> Each flip of a "real" coin is unique<<

                True… if you tossed a coin ten times you would predict 5 heads and 5 tails (the most probable outcome) but as each toss is independent of the previous the out come of a head or tail is always 50/50.. even if the first nine were tails the chance of a head turning on the tenth is still 50/50…

                >>and if you knew all the characteristics of and the forces operating on the coin, you would be able to predict heads or tails.<<

                Also true, in fact its likely that only knowing a high % of all the forces is sufficient since some are cancelled out and others so negligible as to have no influence in the final outcome…

                >> Our problem there is we don't know all the forces. We do know "enough" of the characteristics and forces to make a decent prediction of the "expected value." <<

                But we do know their boundaries… we may not be able to predict the precise outcome but we can put limitations on it because we know the minimum and maximum forces and the independent effect of the forces .. i.e we know the maximum height of the toss possible and the maximum spin possible.. we just don’t know the precise values… hence we only get a probability not a prediction…

                >>How "unique" is the H:LC experiment - there must be some understanding or way of predicting if that kind of collision occurs naturally. <<

                Now that’s the big question! If you accept Einstein’s theory of relativity then you accept that the maximum velocity of any particle is just below the speed of light, and as the LHC will only raise the speed of particles to that then it could be argued that particles do actually travel at this speed. But… and it’s a big but….

                >> If there is some reasonably large possibility that that kind of collision has occurred in the universe since it became "maturely" formed, we at least know there is some reasonably large possibility that the collision will not cause the universe to disappear!<<

                Now if particles can reach that speed (and it has to be remembered that no one has directly observed this in nature) then its likely that they have and do at times collide with other particles, however… the other particle is stationary. As I understand the evidence for such collisions is observations made in or own atmosphere: high energy particles colliding with our ‘stationary’ atmosphere. What the LHC does or is intended to do, is collide two high energy particles head on so that the collision speed is nearly twice the speed of light. The chances of two highly charged particles colliding head on in our universe is highly remote and if it did occur it would occur only in deep space, never near any large mass such as a star or planet. It has to occur in as near to a total vacuum as one can get as the gravitational effect of even a grain of sand would cause both particles to deviate off a direct course. I personally suspect that nowhere in this universe is there a place completely absent of some gravitational effect

                Similarly under natural conditions it would be impossible to observe since the presence of the observer would cause the particles to deviate.. its an event that only happens if you are ‘out of the room’ … the room in this case is the universe itself.

                In a sense the LHC is trying to ‘fool’ the particle into ‘believing’ (sorry but I don’t know a better euphemism) that it is in a complete vacuum, that there is no universe, no opportunity to Deviate… and this makes the event very unique… you could liken it to Arthur Dent’s probability drive (hitchhikers guide to the galaxy) .. hit it and you get anything from rubber chickens to black holes.



                Regards

                Gm23
                • Makes sense - except nothing is "stationary" on its own. Has to be relative to something. if I understand the theory properly. . .

                  I'm not too worried about what might happen, but I will keep a towel nearby.
                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
                    Unsu...
                     
                    quite...

                    nothing is stationary, hence the use of the '..............' but the term ''stationary' reflects the relative facts as does the term stationary in a road accident.. as in' the car veered off and hit a [stationary] wall'... come to think of it, given the relative differences of the speed of a car and the speed of a stationary wall compared to speed of a high energy particle and a particle in the atmosphere I would aver that the car accident scenarion is actually more akin to two moving objects colliding than the high energy/atmospher collision....

                    just a thought........

                    PS the same is true of the use of '....' on fool and believe further down in my post

                    regards

                    gm23
                • ">>and if you knew all the characteristics of and the forces operating on the coin, you would be able to predict heads or tails.<<

                  Also true, in fact its likely that only knowing a high % of all the forces is sufficient since some are cancelled out and others so negligible as to have no influence in the final outcome…"

                  Actually false, even knowing all the forces is insufficient. To be sufficient one would have to know all the forces to an infinitely high precision (not possible). The is an issue of nonlinear dynamics (chaos theory).
                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
                    If we define the "toss" as sufficiently complex (high amount of spin and a somewhat unpredictably shaped/reactive landing surface), I guess you would be right. But in some ways, that makes a point I was suggesting: its different than the collider thing because we know coin flipping physics and can put some parameters around it (like it will be extremely rare for it to land on edge). We can't predict the outcome because of complex interactions about what we know. The collider is physics we don't know.

                    The "Too Complex" has some parameters around it that allow us to make it predictable. How do we compare that to "The Unknown" of how the particles will act under novel circumstances?
                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
                    Unsu...
                     


                    >>Actually false, even knowing all the forces is insufficient. To be sufficient one would have to know all the forces to an infinitely high precision (not possible). The is an issue of nonlinear dynamics (chaos theory).<<

                    come on troy if this was true a gun would be of no use... hence I stand by my statement "Also true, in fact its likely that only knowing a high % of all the forces is sufficient since some are cancelled out and others so negligible as to have no influence in the final outcome…"

                    bang bang.. not matter what way the wind blows the marksman gets his target....

                    regards

                    gm23
                    • "come on troy if this was true a gun would be of no use... hence I stand by my statement "Also true, in fact its likely that only knowing a high % of all the forces is sufficient since some are cancelled out and others so negligible as to have no influence in the final outcome…"
                      "

                      Yes, one pulls the trigger and the gun fires. The bullet the travels at a velocity X +- A with drag Y +- B at angle Z +- C ... to hit the target a distance R +- r from the center. Physics is inherently probabilistic from quantum mechanics up but as one gets to larger systems that statistical nature usually doesn't matter so much. That said there are a lot of large scale systems were tiny changes in initial conditions leads to ilwdly different outcomes (weather and Craps are examples). Before you argue with me go read "Chaos: Making a New Science" by James Gleick if you haven't already. It is a very good book and easy to understand; at 300+ pages it goes into a lot more detail then I ever could here.

                      "bang bang.. not matter what way the wind blows the marksman gets his target...."
                      Clearly not a marksman yourself, for the few I know aren't that cocky...
                      • Unsu...
                         
                        come on troy you can't have it both ways (despite what some quantum physicists say...

                        the point of the comment was to counter the idea you need all of the variables to determine an outcome...yo don't, you just need to know the relevent ones, the ones that have an influence on the outcome.

                        and yes I am not a marksman... I wouldn't hold let alone point a gun at anyone, the weapon has no purpose in my world

                        regards

                        gm23
                • "What the LHC does or is intended to do, is collide two high energy particles head on so that the collision speed is nearly twice the speed of light."

                  Via relativity the collision speed of two particles traveling at say 0.9 c is always less then 1 c (c = the speed of light in a vacuum). Relativity is tricky for most people to wrap their minds around - it is usually more useful to talk about the collision energy then collision speed.
              • According to classical theory yes indeed: the coin will either be heads or it will be tails.

                Like John said if we knew all of the characteristics of and the forces operating on the coin you'd be able to predict heads or tails.

                However according to quantum theory there is a certain probability that the coin will be heads, and a nonzero probability that it will be tails.

                Quantum theory predicts a number of different possible outcomes and tells us how likely each of these are. If you made the same measurement on a large number of similar systems, each of which started off the same way, you would find that the result of the measurement would be "A" (or heads) in a certain number of cases or "B" (tails) in a different number, and so on.

                You could predict the approximate number of times that the result would be heads or tails, but you could never predict the specific result of an individual measurement.
          • "in short.. occums razor... if the problem is unsolvable with the minimum number of variables then it is equally unsolvable with the maximum..."

            Occum's razor states that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. It does not say anything about the solvability of a problem. The solvability of a problem can be very complex. Some can't be solved with the rules of the problem (see Incompleteness Theorem), others have a best solution but for practical reasons one can't prove that one has found it only that one has the best solution that has been tried (see The Traveling Salesman Problem), yet others have an ambiguity that can't be resolved (most common in statistics). Finally, there are problems that are impossible to solve (i.e. those that have the null set as their solution space).

            An example of an impossible problem is the child's puzzle with interlocking tiles number 1 to 15 and a blank space in a frame where the tiles are out of order and the object is to arrange the tiles in order (half of these puzzles can be solved the others can't). An unsolvable puzzle might look like:

            1 3 4 2
            15 12 5 11
            6 7 8 9
            10 13 14
          • While my knowledge of mathematics is insufficient to answer your theoretical question, my research abilities are more than adequate to answer your specific practical question regarding the LHC. While the LHC can achieve an energy that no other particle accelerators have reached before, Nature routinely produces higher energies in cosmic-ray collisions. By observing these collision, the LSAG (LHC Safety Assessment Group) has compiled many of the supposedly "unknown" factors that you seem so worried about. In reality these factors are not nearly so unknown, thus the predictive ability of the physicists and mathematicians to say that the LHC is safe. The full report made by the LSAG can be found here: lsag.web.cern.ch/lsag/LSAG-Report.pdf

            WARNING - It contains 15 pages of graduate level particle physics.

            As to your theoretical question, i.e. the ability of predictive mathematics to resolve completely unknown variables, I do not know the answer. I hope that your fears regarding the LHC have been quelled, however.
      • "...then I can sleep with ease knowing that all those brilliant minds aren't building theories based on a fundamental flaw..."

        I guess it is time for you to get out the bottle of sleeping pills, because all those brilliant minds often do build theories based on a fundamental flaw, though not the type an undergrad can find or even most other pros; which are why experiments are done to test the theories.

        Sorry for the bad news, good luck with the sleep ... LOL
        • Unsu...
           
          >>because all those brilliant minds often do build theories based on a fundamental flaw, though not the type an undergrad can find or even most other pros;<<

          quite so troy quite so...

          but where the LHC is concernerd it would appear the fixer of 'flaw' is a welder.....

          regards

          gm23
          • "but where the LHC is concernerd it would appear the fixer of 'flaw' is a welder....."

            So true...
            In a world full of doctors, the want of a carpenter means there are no houses.
            • Unsu...
               
              well on that note I suspect its time to retire...

              the answer to the untimate question will likely be answered by either the skill of a welder.. resulting in data (which may or may not answer the question) or the end of the world... or as I suspect (and hope) that mathematicians, in particular topologists, rather than physicist will resolve the question and that will likely negate the use of the LHC entirely....

              and until such the possible and probable remain conjoined.......

              regards

              gm23
              • Did you not read my reply? It answered your question re the LHC quite succinctly.
                • Unsu...
                   
                  I read your reply... and whilst not meaning to be pedantic.. you didn't actually answer it you posted a link to a CERN document....

                  however the disagreement is at a fundemental level... perception .. what bridgeman (1927) would have now called the "prejudice of the past" and the resolution lies not in disproving the false (something tells me that isn't possible anyway.. proving a negative) but in proving the true... only then is a false premise revealed as such....

                  after that comes risk, not in terms of probability but in terms of gain... and where a gain is zero, no risk is justifiable. Whilst you may aver the gain is not zero, that is likely only true for a minority, and a very small minority at that (rubber chickens again) but for the overwhelming majority the gain is zero so matter how unlikely a catostrophic risk is .. it's not worth taking.....

                  at this point we will only go round in circles.....
                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
                    Did you read the document in question?
                    • Cuindless,

                      I know you mean well and GM23 has been on really good behavior lately but he turns into a troll when one starts posting bait (no offense intended).
                      • Unsu...
                         
                        oh dear... I'm a 'pobationist am I?...

                        and trolling .. I fear not... trolling to me is not engaging (and one can engage from both a right and a left position) but in posting stupid remarks which don't add to the discussion but reveal the persons overall maturity... i.e posting the one liner "yawn" etc...

                        similarly it is in my experience a remarkably American trait to regard all opposite views as an attempt to bring discourse ... It is actually arogant, 'that the only way is the American way' akin to a form of puritism no different and no less dangerous than the religious zealots that suppressed science in the past.

                        what to a large extent differentiates our views is the teleological argument.... the idea that mind precipitates matter as opposed to matter preciptiating mind... I trust we all agree that mind and matter co-exist now? but we differ as to which precipitated the other...

                        with regard to you term "posting bait" I read that as being an agent provocateur, according to Lord Salmon, the senior Law Lord who set the original judgement, an agent provocateur is the prime mover, without whom the crime would not have taken place and as such is as equal if not more culpable than his/her 'victim'....

                        why set a trap and lay bait only to complain when it is sprung....??

                        thats a troll...

                        regards

                        gm23
                        • GM23,

                          An observation: you get very defensive/argumentative in response to a certain type of post (they just seem to push your buttons, needlessly so).

                          Getting into an argument that is really about personalities and preferred ways of communicating isn't what this tribe is about, nor is it respectful. I've seen a pattern of things, though clearly not all of it, that turns a reasonable man into a troll, thus the "don't post bait." Perhaps more to your liking would have been "don't poke the bear."

                          Peace?
                          • Unsu...
                             
                            who's being defensive and argumentative...

                            we differ in our views.. hence discourse... and we both know that until such time as someone proves otherwise we will likely remain on opposite sides of the argument.. but I don't just post for you Troy (though I'm sure your worth it).. I post also for thos who like to read.. the exhibtionist in me.....

                            and no one holding a gun at ya head... your choice to post your coice of wotds...

                            I suspect too that what you percieve as densive I percieve as humour ..

                            when I read this

                            >> I know you mean well and GM23 has been on really good behavior lately but he turns into a troll when one starts posting bait (no offense intended).<< IROTHFALMHO...

                            hence the rematk... so i'm a probationist now... ? perhaps in hindsight I should have added LOL.. its though not ordinarily necessary in the UK.. perhaps we have a more historical association with satire...

                            and I think the bait remark, what a court would call provocation, and my sentiments on it are quite valid...

                            anyway no need for thos sleeping pills you recommended.. better aids than that, ( assuming you only made the recommendation for sleep purposes?) like this news item from today

                            www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...2719.ece

                            oh and in answer to Curruine (sorry cant remember how you spelling) as you seem to be almost wetting yourself in anticipation of the answer.to your question... heres half of it

                            did I read the link after you posted it?..... No

                            you have to work the other half out for yourself

                            regards

                            gm23

                            ps.. nealy forgot..... LOL
                            • Firstly, the spelling of my name is clear, though your use of the word "curruine" is cute. Was that intentional? I was easily able to research its meaning.

                              Secondly, you are being quite rude in your discussion. Please conduct yourself professionally if you truly wish to engage in worthwhile discourse. I have not treated you poorly in any way.

                              Thirdly, this is not the same document as published by CERN in 2003. This is a re-evaluation by the LHC Safety Assessment Group performed only last year. You should probably read it to get an idea of the actual variables involved.

                              Fourthly, you have, in no way, refuted the very credible and specific arguments made by that document regarding the safety of the LHC. You seem to continue to believe that the variables involved in the LHC are complete unknown, when in reality the scientific community in general, and the CERN specifically, have quite a bit of observational data regarding collisions of this nature and the energy levels produced.

                              Fifth, and finally, you have not provided an acceptable example of a situation with unknowable unique sets.

                              Please read, review and understand this list if you actually care for further respectful and intellectual discourse in good faith. All else will be an affirmation of Troy's basic point. I am still willing to give you the benefit of doubt.
                              • Unsu...
                                 
                                i'll keep it brief.

                                1.. no... was ostinf a reply.. your name is visible.. simple practical reason

                                2.... I poke fun at you... yoy deserve with your barking commands...

                                3.. you can rewrite that safety doc as many times as you like, but as long as it and the science of CERN are based on a fundemental flaw.. it will always be wrong.. the flaw I refer to was first identified in 1927 by bridgeman in his book the logic of modern physics

                                4.. I refer you to answer 3 and would add that everyone involved in CERN and physics in general is subject to having been indocrinated into believing these flaws... the flaw is the reason you cannot resolve the standard model... the maths and the inferences are WRONG

                                5.. I asked in the begining of this post if anyone could provide a solution to "the probability of an outcome for a set of events that are unique" the best answer to that was troys which agrred with my premise .. it can't be done... so I can't provide you with an answer to a question that CERN have so far spent 10billion trying to answer... seems to me if the answer can be provided so easily why spend 10 billion.. why not just get a scalelectrics if its cars on fast tracks that float ya boat.


                                As i mentioned earlier... several times I believe... the thread is pretty much over... the original post has been answered... but you took my bait didn't you? ask yourself, was it really necessary for me to use cern as an example for a maths question?

                                finally... I did in a sense answer your question... I commented that topology was on the verge of short circuiting all the experimental physics projects.. expanding a bit further perhaps in a year or two they will have made that leap and realized that the universe is not made of infinitely smaller particles nor bound by infinite mathematics but is 'looped'... just like this thread is becomming!!

                                still ROTHFLMAO...

                                REGARDS

                                GM23
                                • Unsu...
                                   
                                  sorry my keyboard keeps sticking ...

                                  answer 1 should have read

                                  1) no.. I was posting a reply to troy at the time.... your name was not visible at that point... so had to rely on my poor memory
                                  • Unsu...
                                     
                                    i shouldn't bother but just in case your wondering about that ;looped mathematics' it runs like this

                                    1, 1, 4, 13, 43 (the bronze mean) and it loops like this

                                    1, 1, 4. 13. 43 (loop) 4, 13, 43, (loop) 4, 13, 43 (loop) ...........

                                    its an amazing piece of inner fracturing... creating complexity that leads to newer 'hyperspatial' dimensions... and you are in one now!

                                    but it relies on an unchanging, divided but homogenous component... what I call the void... the void could be likened to a perfect mirror that connects everything... bit like string theory ....

                                    however no two voids can meet....hence no quantum gravity field.... if they do meet, and the LHC has the potential to cause that to happen...it all changes.... and that change may cause the universe to converge on the 'double void'

                                    the higgs boson in some respect is the void... it isnt but just like the void you cant actually find it.

                                    another way of seeing this is that gravity is infact not the first force to emerge from the singularity, but the last but unlike the other three forces its a composite force, a product of the whole, what a toplogist would call a hyperspatial component.

                                    you can show it mathematically using ternary logic...... but in truth you have to realize it... the answer to the ultimate question lies not in breaking the system down but understanding it in its completeness....... I think Hawkins said something along these lines once before...

                                    if you want to carry on posting by all means do, but we are now in a loop....... endless circles with no solution

                                    regards

                                    gm23

                                    regards

                                    gm23
                                • Very well. I wouldn't think that Cuindless is such a difficult sequence of letters for an intellect such as yours to recall, but I guess it is.

                                  You say I "deserve" to be poked fun at. I find this statement disconcerting. I have made few, if any, posts in your direction other than asking polite questions. The fact that you call it barking reveals more about you than it does me.

                                  Now you are saying that Bridgeman was more intelligent and better educated about the specifics of quantum physics in 1927 than the entire team of physicists and mathematicians involved in the entire LHC project. You're basically asserting that of all these vaunted Ph.D.s, not a single one of them noticed this "flaw" you speak of and commented about it. You are furthermore implying that YOU are more intelligent and better educated since you see the flaw as well. Your assertion that they have been "indoctrinated" is a priori. You provide no evidence that they are indoctrinated, you simply rely on our faith in you to establish that. I have no such faith. I am a skeptic.

                                  Lastly, you refer to your post as bait. You thereby fully admit that you don't actually care about intellectual discourse. I have spoken with you in good faith, and you have broken that faith. I hope you have enjoyed your puerile laugh at my expense. I'm glad that I amuse you. This will be the end of our discourse. I had hoped that we might learn something from one another, but it appears that is not in the offing. Good day.
                                  • Unsu...
                                     
                                    Hi Cuindless, just to recap…

                                    You first posted making a reference the LHC Safety report, including the statement >>WARNING - It contains 15 pages of graduate level particle physics<< on Thu, August 6, 2009 - 5:21 PM


                                    Then you posted 1 hour 44 minutes later
                                    >>Did you not read my reply? It answered your question re the LHC quite succinctly. <<

                                    35 minutes later you posted
                                    >>Did you read the document in question?<<

                                    Then on Friday , just over sixteen hours later (why so late, passed your bed time?)you posted…
                                    >>You did not answer my question: Did you read the document?<<

                                    4 hours later you post a list of points… in which you accuse me of being >>quite rude in your discussion. Please conduct yourself professionally if you truly wish to engage in worthwhile discourse. I have not treated you poorly in any way. <<

                                    No you just barked away demanding I read a complex report in record time… it probable never and likely still hasn’t occurred to you that I may have already read the report…


                                    >>Please read, review and understand this list if you actually care for further respectful and intellectual discourse in good faith. All else will be an affirmation of Troy's basic point. I am still willing to give you the benefit of doubt.<<

                                    God it’s like being lectured too from a pompous teacher… I don’t care for your opinion of me personally… its irrelevant .. totally irrelevant ..

                                    But what is relevant is intelligent and entertaining discourse and sadly repeatedly posting >>>>Did you read the document in question?<<<< is more akin to barking than intelligent discourse. I would love to read some intellectual discourse from you Cuindless but at present its sadly lacking.

                                    As for your last post…

                                    >>You say I "deserve" to be poked fun at. I find this statement disconcerting. I have made few, if any, posts in your direction other than asking polite questions. The fact that you call it barking reveals more about you than it does me. <<

                                    Yes you do deserve having fun poked at you given your posts..and you didn’t ask polite questions… you repeatedly demanded I read the document, what I would call barking. The fact you put a question mark after it doesn’t particular make it a question and the absence of an address (I,e Hi, gm23) or a signature ( i.e thanks for your time,) lends it to being considered impolite or rude.. definitely not polite.


                                    >>Now you are saying that Bridgeman was more intelligent and better educated about the specifics of quantum physics in 1927 than the entire team of physicists and mathematicians involved in the entire LHC project.<<

                                    No that is not what I’m saying… I saying Bridgeman noted a possible error to quote "it is possible to analyze nature into correlations without. . . any assumption whatever as to the character of those correlations," and he argues that to go beyond empirical correlation into the realm of hypotheses of reasons for them is to "prejudice the future". The existence of this work came to light whilst doing undergraduate and was originally quoted in a paper by Cline (1962) who noted that a classification system can prejudice the future if such a classification system's criteria are hypotheses without some device for constant and inescapable scrutiny in relation to fact. Such acceptance can mould research into patterns of the past and can limit understanding of even new experience to concepts based on knowledge of the past (Cline, 1962). This work surfaced in relation to soil taxonomy… how removed could one get?

                                    >> You're basically asserting that of all these vaunted Ph.D.s, not a single one of them noticed this "flaw" you speak of and commented about it. <<

                                    Yup, and they can’t… because the rules that were laid down 70 years ago are prejudicing them… they are blinded by their own acceptance… it is sometimes called the intellectual investment… but I know it as the false notion.. and it’s the Achilles heal of science…

                                    >>You are furthermore implying that YOU are more intelligent and better educated since you see the flaw as well. <<

                                    No, that’s your assertion, flatter me if you like but I tend to liken it more to the story of the Kings new clothes… where my advantage (if any) comes in is I’m a soil scientist, or at least trained as one and soil is a rather complex multifaceted, multi-dimensional substrate.. In soil science we refer to it a the Soil Continuum.. and it buggers true description…. But it throws up patterns, temporal and spatial patterns.. and they fascinate me… and thos patterns are similarly very revealing…

                                    >>Your assertion that they have been "indoctrinated" is a priori. You provide no evidence that they are indoctrinated, you simply rely on our faith in you to establish that. I have no such faith. I am a skeptic.<<

                                    Not quite sure what you mean by priori (it is an unusual word with different definitions for different subjects) but as regards indoctrination they have PhD’s, they can wear mortar boards and gowns… what do you think indoctrination means? Of cos they are indoctrinated… if they had never agreed with what they were taught they would never have got their BSc, never accepted into the flock! …lol

                                    >>Lastly, you refer to your post as bait. You thereby fully admit that you don't actually care about intellectual discourse.<<
                                    the intellectual discourse, at least as far as the original post is concerned was well over (as I have repeated noted in my posts) and what you were treated to was a bit of double jeopardy.. afterall this post has degenerated, its become a farce so I was and still am contributing to it… so far no one has complained, likely they are doing what I do when a thread becomes tedious, not reading it or they are and similarly gaining a puerile laugh at ‘your’ and my expense.

                                    >>This will be the end of our discourse. I had hoped that we might learn something from one another, but it appears that is not in the offing. Good day.<<

                                    Well I wish you no bad feelings, why should I? I don’t know you but I haven’t learned anything from you either because apart from posting a link to a publicly available doc, you haven’t actually added anything…

                                    And that is actually a shame….

                                    Regards

                                    GM23
                                    • When I read your (GM23) post, I felt as if I was being clubbed over the head. Probably not what you intended nor are you alone in doing it (I've done it often enough).

                                      As I was told recently, people pay more attention to succinct statements. Although what you say makes sense, I think you would have gotten a better response with "No Cuindless, I haven't had enough time to read and understand the long and complex document yet," then move onto your next point.

                                      Also, the written word comes across more harshly then the same words when spoken (this is very hard for me as I'm very direct to begin with which, to most, sounds harsh).

                                      Just a few suggestions for all of us.
                                      Troy

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